Even the dumbest person in the room would know that that is not the entire scenarios available or the available outcomes. Even in my "biased piece below", at least I have the decency to look at all the possibilities.
Nomura has painted three potential election scenarios and their impacts on the economy.
#3: Election Scenarios and macro implications
BN Parliamentary seat share > 63%
Positive surprise for investors
High 50% < BN Parliamentary seat share < 63%
BN Parliamentary seat share < mid 50%
(To be fair to Morgan Stanley, they did a decent policy comparison between the two parties without really saying too much one way or the other. The snaps attached below are from MS).
I've looked at the problem myself, and for the life of me, I can't figure out how anybody can make an objective forecast of GE13, much less tease out the probability distribution of outcomes.
We are nowhere near being able to replicate basic electoral prediction methodologies, much less aggregate them as e.g. Nate Silver did recently for the US presidential election.
Problem 1: The overall Malaysian electoral sample size (across time) is too small, both for votes and seats.
Problem 2: The sample size for the predictors normally used (opinion polls, quarterly economic data) is even smaller - small enough that a regression estimate can't be generated, which is a precondition for estimating the probability distribution of outcomes.
Problem 3: GE12 may represent a structural break from the past, but that can't be determined statistically until confirmed by results of GE13.
A time series analytical approach can handle the first two statistical issues, and predicts a BN victory with well above a two thirds majority (point estimate) but with a sample error so large as to make any forecast worthless (I suspect this is due to problem 3).
I don't understand how Nomura or MS or BIMB can predict such tight probability outcomes given these constraints. There's nothing in the scenario analysis methodology that allows you to estimate the probability distribution. Scenario analysis is more of an ...if...then... decision tool, not a forecasting methodology per se.
In short, i don't think self censorship has much to do with this, rather everyone's just pissing in the dark. You're absolutely right - nobody should be publishing research on this, because its too damaging to their credibility.